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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 34

2019-09-25 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 252037 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 65.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 65.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 65.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Graphics

2019-09-25 19:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 17:50:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 15:54:01 GMT

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-25 19:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.1, -66.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 33A

2019-09-25 19:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 66.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 66.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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