je.st
news
Tag: jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 29A
2019-09-24 19:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-24 16:57:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:57:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:25:00 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-24 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241445 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however, we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance. Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2019-09-24 16:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 241444 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 5 16(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-24 16:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA TOMORROW... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 30.8, -69.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
jerry
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »