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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 01:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 31.3, -68.9 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 30A
2019-09-25 01:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-24 22:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:50:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:50:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-09-24 22:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242049 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection, will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less, and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also shown by the global models. Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-24 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 31.1, -69.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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