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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 08:00:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 06:00:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:24:50 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 07:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS FOR NOW... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 31.6, -68.4 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 31A
2019-09-25 07:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250559 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 02:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 31
2019-09-25 04:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of 34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning. Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast. Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or 025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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