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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 29

2019-09-24 16:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 29

2019-09-24 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

2019-09-24 14:01:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 12:01:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 09:25:11 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-24 13:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 30.5, -68.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 28A

2019-09-24 13:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241159 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 68.9W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east- northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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