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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 41
2018-10-09 16:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening. Cloud tops on the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased. However, recent AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h. Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low shortly after moving inland. Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. All of the global and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California peninsula on Friday. There is still some disagreement among the models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but there is very little cross-track spread. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2018-10-09 16:48:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091448 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 8(42) X(42) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 1(58) X(58) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 44(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 11 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 6 18(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 130W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-09 16:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Sergio was located near 16.6, -127.4 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 41
2018-10-09 16:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Sergio. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 127.4 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 41
2018-10-09 16:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 091447 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 70 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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