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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-10-02 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 117 WTNT23 KNHC 020842 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 44.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 48.9N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 53.4N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 58.7N 26.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.3W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 38A
2021-10-02 07:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020534 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...SAM'S CORE PASSING WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE HURRICANE HAS LOST SOME INTENSITY BUT STILL PLENTY POTENT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 61.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will move away from Bermuda today. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane into Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph (65 to 80 km/h). Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure has risen to 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 11
2021-10-02 04:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...DISORGANIZED VICTOR WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 35.3W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 35.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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