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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-10-01 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 37
2021-10-01 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 797 WTNT33 KNHC 012034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...CORE OF SAM FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 61.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 36A
2021-10-01 19:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011743 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT SAM IS MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... ...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 61.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 61.9 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 36
2021-10-01 16:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 61.8W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 9
2021-10-01 16:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 33.5W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 33.5 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed today. A turn toward the northwest is anticipated over the weekend, and that motion will likely continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Over the weekend, Victor is forecast to slowly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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