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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-09 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 20A
2020-10-09 19:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091756 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE LANDFALL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 93.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is now moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A turn toward the northeast is expected later on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern Louisiana during the next several hours, and then move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h). Lake Charles Regional Airport recently reported a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore within portions of the tropical storm warning areas during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-10-09 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 918 WTNT21 KNHC 091447 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 93.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-09 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DISORGANIZED NORBERT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 106.1W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-10-09 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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