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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-21 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 564 WTNT22 KNHC 210235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......300NE 90SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..800NE 360SE 520SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 56.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 56.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-21 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-20 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 55.8W ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 55.8 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-20 22:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202045 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......280NE 90SE 30SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 150SE 360SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...280NE 110SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 55.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-20 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 55.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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