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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-10-04 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 9A

2020-10-04 19:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 88.0W ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NNE OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 22

2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward during the next several days with some reduction in forward speed commencing Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by Monday night, and further weaken to a depression by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-04 16:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041444 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 9

2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041443 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 88.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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