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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-13 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 24A
2020-09-13 01:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122340 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 59.2W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern and should provide more information about winds associated with Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-09-13 01:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122339 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 82.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. On Monday night and Tuesday, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north are forecast. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Marco Island, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening, especially over the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west- central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-12 22:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...SALLY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 81.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. The Tropical Storm watch has been extended westward from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Alabama/Florida Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening, especially over the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west- central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through tonight over south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-12 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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