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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-09-12 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 122032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 4A

2020-09-12 20:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121801 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 4A...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Corrected header ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center, just to the south of the Florida Keys. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, especially over the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Sally is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 23A

2020-09-12 19:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 57.8W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 121459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES, AND STORM SURGE WATCHES, COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 4

2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121459 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and continue to intensify Sunday and Monday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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