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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-09-09 07:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090556 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 108.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by this evening or tonight. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Baja California Sur tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area later this afternoon or evening and will spread northward within the warning area tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa later today, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 34
2021-09-09 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090253 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 60.3W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.3 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become fully post-tropical by Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-09-09 04:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090252 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..460NE 290SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 60.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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