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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-06-19 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 192056 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 1 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VERACRUZ MX 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-06-19 22:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 192055 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 94.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-08 11:06:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jun 2016 08:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jun 2016 09:03:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-06-08 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 08 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 0900 UTC WED JUN 08 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-06-08 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016 Mexican surface and radar data, along with recent ASCAT overpasses, indicate that the center of the depression is now near the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The scatterometer data suggests that the maximum winds are at most 25 kt. The depression is expected to move inland later today and dissipate over southeastern Mexico in less than 24 hours. The initial motion is a northward drift or 360/2. A northward to north-northeastward drift should continue until dissipation. While the associated convection has been minimal for the past few hours, there is a continued heavy rainfall threat from this system. This rainfall will be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash floods and mud slides are anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.4N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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