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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-06-07 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071457 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still exists in association with the system. First-light visible satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation. The initial motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north from that of the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear this morning. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-07 13:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 11:38:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 09:05:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-07 13:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 the center of ONE-E was located near 15.1, -95.1 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-06-07 13:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071133 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 95.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (10 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico later today, but will likely remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea/Brown
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-07 11:11:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 09:06:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 09:05:10 GMT
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