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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-06-07 11:01:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070901 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-06-07 10:56:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly organized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated shapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistent southerly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system approaches the coast. Most of the global models indicate that the system will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario. With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion are highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity. However, the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave trough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow cyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast period. The official forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is slightly to the right of the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-07 10:54:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 the center of ONE-E was located near 14.6, -95.4 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2016-06-07 10:54:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070853 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 95.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico later today, but will likely remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-06-07 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070853 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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