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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-08 01:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LOSING ORGANIZATION BUT STILL SOAKING SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 the center of ONE-E was located near 15.6, -94.6 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 5A
2016-06-08 01:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072332 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...DEPRESSION LOSING ORGANIZATION BUT STILL SOAKING SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was estimated near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is drifting northeastward near 5 mph (8 km/h), and little motion is anticipated during the next few hours. A turn toward the north is expected later tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over water to the east and southeast of the center. The depression appears to be losing organization and the tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-07 23:11:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 20:33:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 21:05:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an 18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.0N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-07 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA AS DEPRESSION NEARS THE COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 the center of ONE-E was located near 15.5, -94.7 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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