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Tropical Depression TEN Graphics
2015-09-18 23:13:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 20:35:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 21:05:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-18 23:09:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 20:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 21:04:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of TEN was located near 13.4, -37.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 37.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 37.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has continued to improve, with well-defined convective banding wrapping around the center. 1800 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support tropical storm intensity, but since ASCAT data from earlier this morning only showed 20 kt of wind in the inner core, the initial intensity is only being raised to 30 kt for now. Barring any unexpected changes, the depression will likely be a tropical storm by this evening. The environment appears generally conducive for gradual strengthening during the next few days, but the global models show that the cyclone will be located precariously beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, especially on days 3 through 5. Even a slight deviation from this pattern could put the cyclone in a higher-shear environment and thus limit intensification, or even induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual strengthening through the forecast period and is close to a consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the depression being steered by a mid-level anticyclone to its northwest. This anticyclone is expected to move westward at the same pace as the depression during the next few days, maintaining a west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that time, the steering currents are forecast to collapse near the cyclone when a deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the models show very slow motion occurring by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track forecast shows the cyclone becoming stationary at the end of the forecast period. This forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.9N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.9N 40.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.1N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.2N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 19.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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