je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression TEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 182034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-09-18 22:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 38.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.9N 40.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 42.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.5N 47.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-18 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 Deep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the depression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear and dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to open up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. The motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during the past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of 300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the low-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in agreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.0N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.4N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.6N 51.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 20.2N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-18 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of NINE was located near 18.0, -47.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 10
2015-09-18 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 47.3W ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 47.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday, and dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1187] [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] next »