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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-01 07:42:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Five was located near 9.5, -47.4 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-07-01 07:42:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010542 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 47.4W ABOUT 950 MI...1535 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning late tonight and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late tonight and into Friday. RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2021-07-01 04:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 02:56:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 02:56:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-01 04:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010255 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 The satellite presentation of the system over the last 6-12 hours has continued to gradually improve, with a prominent banding feature to the west of the estimated center. An ASCAT-A pass received at 2323 UTC revealed that the low-level circulation has become a bit better defined compared to earlier today, though still somewhat elongated to the south and west. The peak wind retrievals from this instrument were 30-32 kt. While subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were a bit higher, the latest estimated intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory in agreement with the slightly lower scatterometer data. The initial motion has accelerated a bit tonight at 280/20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and begin to move more poleward and slow down as the ridge also becomes eroded by a mid-latitude trough to over the eastern US. The track guidance in the latter portion of the forecast continues to exhibit large spread, with the GFS and HWRF/HMON models along the left side of the guidance envelop, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is a shade right of the previous one, and also slightly faster, but given the spread in the models, the latter portion of the track is more uncertain than usual. While the depression is currently in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and high mid-level relative humidity, the expected acceleration in forward motion could cause the system to outrun the favorable upper-level easterlies currently overhead, after 36 hours. In addition, the system could be near or over some of the Greater Antilles in the latter portions of the forecast. For these reasons, the intensity remained capped at 50 kt after 36 hours, and is still on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite, though this forecast could be somewhat conservative. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are expected beginning late Thursday night in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 9.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 120H 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-07-01 04:54:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010254 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 37(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 10(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 45(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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