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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 22:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 20:50:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 21:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-20 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the trends of the various global models. The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the central and eastern Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-06-20 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 202031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) RALEIGH NC 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FAYETTEVILLE 34 18 9(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 22(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 34 7 14(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-06-20 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 82.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 34.2, -82.5 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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