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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-06-28 19:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281750 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina within the warning area later this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall occurs. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The depression could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2021-06-28 19:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 17:50:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-28 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281451 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2021-06-28 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 14:50:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 281448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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