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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 2
2021-07-01 04:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 46.3W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 46.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning late Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday night into Friday. RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-01 04:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 184 WTNT25 KNHC 010253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 46.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Tropical Depression Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 14:40:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 14:40:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-06-30 16:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 301439 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the estimated center position, and the only active convection at this time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique to a tropical depression. Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus. Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction, should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not indicate much potential for additional convective development before the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and dissipate shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 301438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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