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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-21 07:24:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 05:24:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-21 05:13:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 03:13:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-06-21 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 210238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-21 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough. Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN. No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-21 04:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 34.7, -80.4 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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