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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 06:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 05:32:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 03:24:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 06:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.0, -87.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-11-06 06:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 87.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-11-06 03:54:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060254 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has not become any better organized during the past several hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated into a broad low or trough, there isn't enough evidence to break continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to provide a better look at the low-level circulation. The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough interaction. Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend, it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that range. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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