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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-05 21:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052054 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds occuring well to the northeast of the center. The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In addition, there is a significant speed difference between the faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about 72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the guidance from 72-120 h. The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba later tonight or on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 15.7, -87.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 052053 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 87.7W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 87.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected during the next several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge over the Caribbean Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical storm strength on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 15:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT
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