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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 00:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 16.0, -87.8 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-11-06 00:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 87.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast during the next several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near Cuba on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) over water, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical storm strength on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 00:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 23:30:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 22:11:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 052054 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 6(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 9(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 8(25) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 3(24) 4(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) 2(25) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 2(25) 1(26) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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