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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-10-25 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242333 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of western Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Graphics
2020-10-25 01:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 23:33:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:32:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Graphics
2020-10-24 22:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 20:54:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 21:32:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-24 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 the center of Twenty-Eight was located near 18.7, -83.0 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-24 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242053 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 10(32) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 6(35) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) 1(27) X(27) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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