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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-22 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000- 30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations. The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the GFS model. Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN and HCCA. This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.0N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-22 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING BETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 29.0, -96.3 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Beta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-22 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...SLOW-MOVING BETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 96.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beta was located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 96.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday, and Beta is expected to become a remnant low pressure system by late Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 13 to 14 inches have been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-22 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 222042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JASPER TX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-22 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 96.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 96.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 96.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BETA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV . $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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