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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 22(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 50(51) 25(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-29 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 13.2, -107.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Beta Graphics
2020-09-22 22:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:44:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:44:17 GMT
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