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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Five (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Twenty-Five was located near 18.1, -84.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 84.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Watch south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 021455 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) COZUMEL MX 34 1 15(16) 18(34) 4(38) 3(41) X(41) 1(42) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2020-09-29 16:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 14:43:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 14:43:26 GMT
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