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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Graphics
2020-10-05 10:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:54:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:54:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-05 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 050849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 9(20) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 16(25) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 22(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 25(32) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25(34) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) 13(41) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 29(42) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 29(47) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 30(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 24(55) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 15(59) 10(69) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 8(30) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 28(55) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 28(67) 11(78) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 10(46) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 5(25) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 24(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 23(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 18(41) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 18(45) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 7(59) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 13(31) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 9(41) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 55(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 49(51) 10(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 32(33) 37(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 24(41) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 25(53) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Twenty-six was located near 17.0, -78.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 604 WTNT21 KNHC 050849 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 605 WTNT31 KNHC 050849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 78.2W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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