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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-09-12 16:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 121458 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus values. Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-09-12 16:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 121458 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 16:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Rene was located near 23.2, -44.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 22
2020-09-12 16:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 121457 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 44.4W ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 44.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. A turn to the west-southwest is expected to occur by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is possible over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-09-12 16:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 121457 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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