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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.6, -80.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-12 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120859 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 8 6(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 4 15(19) 2(21) 1(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) TAMPA FL 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 9(36) 2(38) X(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 16(37) 7(44) 2(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 13(41) 2(43) X(43) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 3(25) 2(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 5(25) 2(27) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 5(29) 2(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 17(59) 4(63) X(63) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) 1(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32) 3(35) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 11(35) 3(38) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) 5(37) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) 3(36) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 8(36) 3(39) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 4(22) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 5(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 5(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 6(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 6(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 5(21) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 24(47) 5(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 28(40) 8(48) 3(51) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 3(18) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-12 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120859 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 80.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued along the southeastern coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 80.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move across the southern Florida Peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday morning. This rainfall could produce scattered flash flooding. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-12 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120859 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.7W AT 12/0900Z...INLAND AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.1N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.9N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.9N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.3N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 80.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 07:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 05:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 03:39:38 GMT
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