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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-11 22:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112055 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics
2020-09-09 10:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:49:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-09 10:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090846 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Rene is increasing and becoming better organized, with a broad convective band forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone is close to regaining tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt to see if the convection persists and what upcoming scatterometer data shows. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. There is little change in the forecast philosophy for the first 48-60 h of the forecast, with Rene expected to continue west-northwestward. This part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After 60 h, much of the track guidance has shifted significantly to the left and shows less of a northward turn by 96-120 hr. This shift has left the GFS and the old forecast on the right side of the guidance envelope. This part of the new forecast track is moved to the left of the previous track, but it lies to the right of the various consensus models. If the current guidance trends continue, additional westward shifts of the later part of the forecast track may be necessary in subsequent advisories, Conditions appear generally favorable for Rene to strengthen during the next 48-60 h, although the cyclone will be moving over sea surface temperatures of near 26.5C during that time. The intensity forecast calls for Rene to re-intensify and become a hurricane by the 60 h point. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter moderate to strong northwesterly shear which should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged since the previous forecast, and it lies between the ICON and HCCA intensity consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 17.4N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-09 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Rene was located near 17.4, -30.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090846 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...RENE EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 30.5W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 30.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery shows that the system is becoming better organized, and Rene is expected to regain tropical storm strength later today and become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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