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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-09-07 19:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THOSE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 21.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 21.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2020-09-07 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 14:34:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 15:31:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-07 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071433 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength. Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical storm later today. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days. This steering pattern should keep the system on a general west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge, which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the various consensus models. The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 21.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-07 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM CVT Mon Sep 7 the center of Eighteen was located near 15.7, -21.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-07 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 071432 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 1 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) RIBIERA GRANDE 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PRAIA CVI 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA MARIA CV 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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