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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-29 10:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290859 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression continues to slowly organize this morning, with a distinct curved band stretching along the southeastern quadrant of the low-level circulation. However, the deep convection that was closer to the center earlier has recently been sheared off to the northeast due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt respectively. The latest objective ADT guidance was a bit higher at T2.4/34 kt. Taking a blend of these estimates, the intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory, though the depression appears close to becoming a tropical storm. The depression is beginning to gradually accelerate, with the estimated motion now at 050/13 kt. A strong deep-layer trough will continue to steer the depression to the northeast in the short-term with increasing forward motion. After the system becomes a post-tropical cyclone, it is forecast to gradually pivot to the north and then northwest before dissipating in 72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a touch faster than the previous one, following the latest consensus track guidance. While vertical wind shear is expected to increase quite dramatically over the next 24-36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing should offset this negative factor and allow at least steady intensification in the short term especially as the cyclone accelerates. After 24 hours, the system will be crossing into much cooler sea-surface temperatures, and extratropical transition will likely be ongoing as the system merges with an advancing frontal boundary. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, and is just a bit stronger in the short-term helped by the fast forward motion, with a peak intensity of 50-kt just before extratropical transition occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2021-08-29 10:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 290857 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112021)

2021-08-29 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Eleven was located near 34.0, -48.6 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2

2021-08-29 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290857 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 48.6W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. The depression is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this direction of motion is expected to continue with further acceleration through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today. The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

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