je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Ida was located near 32.6, -90.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
ida
Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight. Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf coast should continue to subside through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this evening and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on Ida can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 302037 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302036 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-30 10:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300858 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The deep convection with Tropical Depression Ten is in a sheared bursting pattern this morning, associated with overshooting cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A 0518 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass did show a bit of banding associated with this activity on the 37 GHz low-level channel. However, Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicates this convective activity remains located downshear of the low-level center thanks to very strong 30-50 kt northwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet at 200 mb. The latest round of subjective Dvorak estimates were 25 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Taking a blend of these estimates and the earlier ASCAT wind data supports keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has resumed a northward motion this morning, with the latest estimate at 360 degrees at 7 kt. A deep-layer trough passing by well to the north is continuing to provide a weakness in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to escape northward. The system could even move a bit east of due north over the next 24-36 hours if down-shear convective bursts help to drag the low-level center a bit right of the steering flow. After 36 hours, the deep-layer trough moves eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build back in. The net result is that the depression should turn leftward and begin a more northwestward motion by the latter part of this week. The latest track guidance has once again made another westward shift this cycle after 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, the latest track is still not as far west as the GFS & ECMWF models, and further westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Strong upper-level flow is the primary hindrance for the depression currently. In fact, both GFS & ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the vertical wind shear remaining above 30 kt for the next 24 hours as the cyclone moves through the core of a subtropical jet streak. Interestingly, this shearing flow seems to be mostly based in the upper-levels, with much lower mid-level shear diagnosed by UW-CIMSS. This lower mid-level shear may help explain why deep-convection has not yet been completely stripped away from the low-level center. After 36 hours, most of the guidance agrees that an upper-level low will cut off to the southwest of the depression, providing a more favorable upper-level environment over the system. However, it remains unclear what will be left of the depression by that time, and the latest 00z ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON runs suggest the vortex will be too weak and diffuse to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain the current intensity through 48 hours, with only modest intensification beginning after that time assuming the circulation is coherent enough to take advantage of the more favorable environment. The latest intensity forecast is just a bit lower than the previous forecast, and is also lower than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It remains distinctly possible that the depression could become a remnant low if its convection is completely stripped away. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.8N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] next »