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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290856 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-29 10:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 034 WTNT45 KNHC 290856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Depression Ten continues to struggle against 25-30 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear, as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS guidance. Convection has thus remained displaced primarily to the southeast, though with some recent cells trying to develop closer to the center. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt with the objective ADT estimate at T2.3/33 kt. Given the disorganized nature of the current structure on IR satellite, I have elected to stay on the conservative side of these estimates and hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression continues to move toward the north at 360/9 kt. A large weakness in the mid-level ridging, due to a strong upper-tropospheric trough, will allow the depression to continue moving northward in the short-term, though there may be some occasional eastward bends as downshear convection tugs at the low-level vortex of the system. However by 72 h, some mid-level ridging is expected to build back in, allowing the track to shift a bit more leftward to the north-northwest after this point. The track guidance has not shifted much over the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one, continuing to favor a blend of the the consensus aids (HCCA, TVCN). The poor current structure of the depression, under high shear importing dry air, argues against much short term intensification. However, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance still suggests a brief respite in the shear between 12-24 hours. For this reason, the NHC intensity forecast still shows some slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Another round of 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear between 24-48 hours is then expected to keep the system in check, and it remains possible that the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low over this time period. However, by 72 hours, the upper-level trough shearing the system is forecast to cut-off to the southwest, and this will shift the upper-level flow from northwesterly to southeasterly, which should provide a more favorable environment for strengthening. Thus, gradual strengthening is shown beginning in 72 hours extending through the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast, favoring the more pessimistic ECMWF guidance versus the more aggressive GFS and regional hurricane models. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter portion of this forecast since it is unclear how much of the cyclone will survive the current unfavorable environment during the next 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.3N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 290854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-29 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS... ...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 17.3, -49.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS... ...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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