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Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 312034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122021)
2021-08-31 22:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 the center of Twelve was located near 11.2, -21.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 312034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 21.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, and a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 312034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 21.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate continues to produce small, sporadic bursts of convection near and to the east of its partially exposed low-level center this afternoon. The cyclone has moved north of the subtropical jet stream that it has been centered under for the past couple of days, so the mid- to upper-level vertical wind shear is beginning to diminish. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes this morning missed Kate's small circulation. The current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is moving a little faster to the north, or 360/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. Kate is expected to begin moving north-northwestward tonight as a mid-level ridge builds to the east and northeast of the cyclone. This general motion should continue through early Thursday, before an approaching mid- to upper-level trough begins steering Kate more northward through Friday. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope, remaining close to the multi-model consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging, with mixed signals noted from the various intensity models. On the one hand, satellite imagery indicates the vertical wind shear is obviously diminishing over Kate, and the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs of around 28.5 deg C for the next couple of days. However, the cyclone remains embedded within a dry mid-level environment that is clearly making it difficult for Kate to produce organized convection. The official NHC intensity forecast still shows no explicit intensity change and remains closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVDR aids. However, some short-term intensity fluctuations are certainly possible, which is notable since Kate's intensity is hovering around the tropical depression/storm threshold. By Thursday, Kate will be moving into an even drier, more subsident environment that will make it even more difficult to sustain deep convection. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Kate becoming a remnant low completely devoid of convection by Friday, with dissipation shortly thereafter ahead of an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 24.6N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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