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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-29 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 023 WTNT41 KNHC 290249 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 Before sunset this evening, visible satellite images showed that a well-defined low level circulation was developing in association with the disturbance over the subtropical central Atlantic. However, up until a couple of hours ago, the system lacked sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone by definition. Since that time, a deep convective burst has increased in size near, and to the east of the estimated center. In addition, a curved band has begun to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on this increase in convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven. There was no ASCAT data this evening over the cyclone, so the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB. The initial motion of the depression is 050/10 kt. The cyclone is embedded in southwesterly flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough and an associated cold front. This flow is forecast to increase as the cold front approaches the cyclone, resulting in the system accelerating northeastward over the next day or so. Once the cyclone interacts with this frontal boundary in a couple of days, a turn to the north is expected. The model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the consensus tracks. Baroclinic forcing and upper-level diffluence should aid in intensifying the depression over the next 24 h, despite increasing shear. By 36 h, the combination of interaction with the cold front and passage over much cooler waters should result in extratropical transition. The system is then forecast to become absorbed by a larger low pressure system by midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 33.0N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2021-08-29 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 02:49:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:34:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-29 04:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 407 FONT11 KNHC 290248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112021)
2021-08-29 04:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 28 the center of Eleven was located near 33.0, -49.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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