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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2018-09-19 16:56:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 14:56:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 15:21:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-19 16:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 365 WTPZ44 KNHC 191455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough. This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows curved convective banding features to the east and north of the center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to move inland without significant strengthening. An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain. The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-19 16:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 433 FOPZ14 KNHC 191453 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
2018-09-19 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 26.3, -110.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-19 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 539 WTPZ34 KNHC 191453 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move inland over northwestern Mexico this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is forecast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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