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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-18 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 02:38:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 03:27:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-18 04:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 065 WTNT45 KNHC 180237 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce remains a very resilient tropical cyclone. After an earlier burst of deep convection just east of the low-level center that has since dissipated, a new convective burst has developed just north of the center with a curved convective band trying to develop in the eastern semicircle. All of this convective activity has been occurring despite westerly 850-200-mb vertical wind shear of near 35 kt and in the presence of very dry mid-level air. The initial intensity is being maintained a 30 kt based on earlier 28-kt ASCAT wind data, and the fact that no significant change has occurred to Joyce's low-level appearance in satellite imagery. The initial motion estimate is now 155/06 kt. Joyce is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across the eastern Atlantic to the southwest and west of the cyclone. This large-scale steering feature is expected to gradually turn Joyce toward the south overnight and on Tuesday, and then force the cyclone toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is to the west of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA and HCCA. Convective development during the past 12 hours has been in large part due to the strong atmospheric instability created by very cold 200-mb temperatures near -57 deg C overlaying relatively warm ocean temperatures of 25.5 deg C. A contributing factor to the most recent convective development appears to be enhanced uplift caused by an approaching shortwave trough noted in water vapor imagery between 30W-35W longitude. The latter feature is forecast by most of the global models to cut off south of the Azores and become entangled with Joyce's circulation over the next few days, resulting in a sharp decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in atmospheric instability/CAPE by 48 h and beyond, which would aid convective development and re-strengthening. For now, however, the new intensity forecast continues the weakening trend of the previous advisories due to an abundance of very dry mid-level air being entrained into the circulation, which is expected to shut down convective development, causing Joyce to dissipate shortly after 72 h. However, confidence in this forecast scenario is not very high, and some adjustments may be required to subsequent forecasts once the 18/0000Z model guidance becomes available, especially since the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance maintains Joyce as a 30- to 35-kt tropical cyclone through the next 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 33.2N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 32.4N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 31.4N 27.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 30.5N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 29.9N 29.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 29.2N 33.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-09-18 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 576 FONT15 KNHC 180234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-18 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 17 the center of Joyce was located near 33.2, -27.3 with movement SSE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 22
2018-09-18 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 302 WTNT35 KNHC 180233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 27.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 27.3 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the south is forecast to begin on Tuesday, followed by a motion toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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