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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 21 the center of Eleven was located near 13.1, -53.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 200 WTNT31 KNHC 220248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 53.4W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or two. The depression is forecast to dissipate late this weekend or early next week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 212 FONT11 KNHC 220248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-22 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 194 WTNT21 KNHC 220248 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 53.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 53.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 55.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 56.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-19 22:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 699 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops, and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30 kt based on this information. The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory. The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. This will not afford much time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of the Sierra-Madre Occidental. The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
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