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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 018 WTNT25 KNHC 170833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 71
2018-09-17 04:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-17 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 02:41:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 03:28:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-17 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 919 WTNT45 KNHC 170240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very strong westerly vertical wind shear. The system still displays cold cloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least 100 nm from the center. The shear is being induced primarily by 50-kt 200 mb winds. Usually such strong vertical shear would completely decapitate a tropical cyclone. However, systems in higher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear vector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental effects of the shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce will soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters, and dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening, nearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models. Joyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip. The system has not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is expected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores high. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the southeast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the southwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker eastward initial motion than previously observed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 34.0N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.0, -30.3 with movement E at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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