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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-07-29 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 728 WTPZ43 KNHC 290837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma continues to generate convection to the east of the exposed low-level center despite the ongoing 30 kt or more of westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on these data and the unchanged organization since the last advisory. The initial motion is now 280/13. Gilma is expected to move westward and eventually south of westward during the next 2-3 days in the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the north. There has been a slight southward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and the forecast track is thus nudged a little southward. The new track continues to lie close to the various consensus models. An upper-level trough located over the cyclone has been providing support for the central convection to persist despite the shear. The large-scale models forecast that Gilma will move west of the trough axis during the next 12-24 h, which will expose the tropical cyclone to 40-50 kt northwesterly upper-level winds and an environment of upper-level convergence. These developments should bring an end to the central convection and cause Gilma to decay to a remnant low. The remnants of the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-72 h as indicated by the large-scale models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-29 10:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA SURVIVING AS A DEPRESSION DESPITE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 the center of Gilma was located near 16.1, -137.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 11
2018-07-29 10:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 217 WTPZ33 KNHC 290837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 ...GILMA SURVIVING AS A DEPRESSION DESPITE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 137.0W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 137.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The tropical depression is in an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and it is forecast to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate entirely within a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-07-29 10:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 190 FOPZ13 KNHC 290837 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-07-29 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 030 WTPZ23 KNHC 290836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 137.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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