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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-07-29 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 163 WTPZ23 KNHC 290234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 135.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-28 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 20:33:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 20:33:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-07-28 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 372 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Increasing westerly shear is taking its toll on Gilma. Deep convection that has been persisting on the eastern side of the system has become farther separated from the center, with an exposed low-level swirl centered more than 75 n mi from the edge of the convection. Although the system appears to be a little weaker than earlier today, there is no scatterometer data to confirm that. Therefore, the initial wind speed has been held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Westerly shear of about 30 to 35 kt is expected to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma passes west of the axis of an upper-level trough tonight. The combination of these hostile winds aloft, cooler SSTs, and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken, and the NHC forecast now shows Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4. Gilma could become a remnant low even sooner than currently forecast, as the unfavorable upper-level flow to the west of the upper trough axis could completely shear off the deep convection from the center. The depression made a jog to the northwest during the day today, but it is expected to resume a west to west-northwestward motion at around 10 kt through tonight, steered by mid-level ridging to the north. Thereafter, as the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn to the west, steered by low-level ridging to its northwest. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous forecast, and it is close to the clustering of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-07-28 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 991 FOPZ13 KNHC 282031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA ENCOUNTERING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 the center of Gilma was located near 15.8, -134.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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