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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150859 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY HEADING WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 124.5W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 124.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A very slow westward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system could become a Tropical Storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150859 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection has decreased near the center of the depression. That said, the fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an improvement compared to 24 hours ago. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. There is no change in the reasoning behind the intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly intensify. The intensity forecast is still based on a selective consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely, given the current structure of the cyclone. A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains somewhat ill-defined. My best estimate of the initial motion is 270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous advisory. Little change was required to the track forecast since the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period. The models continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days, followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge begins to build to the northwest. My forecast is close to HCCA, but gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-09-15 10:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150859 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-15 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 08:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 08:53:08 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-15 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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