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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-15 04:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery. A larger SW-NE elongated circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger cyclonic envelope. In an absence of any other data to use, the intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago. Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm. By the end of the forecast period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should cause the cyclone to begin to weaken. No significant changes have been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF. Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt. The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety of the forecast period. While the spread is fairly high, in general the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48 h. The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-15 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -124.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 14
2017-09-15 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 124.1W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 124.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph. Very little motion is expected during the next few days, but the depression should continue to move slowly westward. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a Tropical Storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-15 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150248 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 4 15(19) 8(27) 8(35) 6(41) 3(44) X(44) 15N 125W 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-09-15 04:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150248 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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